Confused? You bet.The moral issues aside, war looks a near certainty, and we must consider what can happen from here. To expect the US to back down from a de facto declaration of war is wishful thinking Regime change is now a minimum. If Saddam were to leave at the 11th hour, then and only then would war be averted.As we approach what must be a deadline (armchair military strategists point to the importance of the moon in the next few days, suggesting that the US would prefer to send stealth bombers under cover of darkness), I notice a shift in the analysis. While much of the “debate” remains focused on why President Bush is attacking Iraq – to avenge his father, seize oil, look tough for domestic voters – a small number of writers are starting to look at things differently. Consider, then, this scenario.The occupation of Iraq (for that is what it will be) is about extending the US sphere of influence into the Middle East, which the Bush administration has determined is unstable and a threat to US interests If that sounds brutal and imperialist, then so be it It doesn’t mean it isn’t also extremely likely.
A US-friendly regime in Iraq would allow the US to lift sanctions, help the Iraqi people and remove the threat of an unstable tyrant But these are additional benefits. (Ironically, not to go to war would leave these issues unresolved and almost certainly getting worse.) The real purpose is to stabilise the Middle East. With the US as a de facto member of Opec, any risk to stability from a fall of the house of Saud (and let’s not pretend that is not at least a possibility) is neutered. Meanwhile, the US, with hundreds of thousands of troops “peacekeeping” in the region, can ensure that any new regime in Saudi Arabia acts in Western interests.A regime change in Iraq – even without one in Saudi – would enable the US to put considerable pressure on those states implicitly and explicitly supporting terrorists. In this scenario, it is clear that weapons of mass destruction are a pretext and their discovery or otherwise is the McGuffin in the whole movie. It is equally clear that UN agreement is not necessary, either. Both would be nice, but their absence won’t affect the outcome.
Saying you don’t want a war does not mean you won’t get one.The prospect of war in Iraq is not the only thing investors are thinking about at the moment. Dividend cuts, more accounting scandals, institutionalised risk aversion and the slow death of the cult of the equity all play their part. However, the uncertainty generated by the phoney war is significant, and markets hate uncertainty. Thus in the event of a relatively swift resolution, the market is likely to bounce quite sharply. Whether that bounce is enough to turn some of the vicious circles dogging markets into virtuous ones remains to be seen.Mark Tinker is a partner at stockbroker Execution info letsxstocks .
They are calling him “the Tom Archer of Thirsk”, after the sausage-making character in Radio 4’s The Archers. But Andrew Keeble, who along with his wife Debbie turned their struggling North Yorkshire farm into a £1m-a-year sausage business, could also be a secret weapon in the £3bn bidding battle for Safeway. Along with Daryll’s faggots, Warren’s pasties, Rodda’s clotted cream and a board game called Taxi (which outsells Trivial Pursuit and Monopoly in Edinburgh), the sausages only ended up on Asda’s shelves as a result of the supermarket’s regional sourcing initiative, which went nationwide a year ago.Local sourcing is a massive issue for supermarkets. When the big four operators – Tesco, J Sainsbury, Asda and Safeway – were slated by the Competition Commission in 2000, one of the main complaints was about how they treated suppliers.Now, with Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Wm Morrison vying for the hand of Safeway, sourcing and the supermarkets’ relationship with the farming community will be key factors determining whether the regulators let the bids go through.Morrison’s sees this area as its big advantage, having received support from many suppliers, notably the quiche maker Thomas Food, which wrote to regulators backing the Morrison’s bid. “We came out of the Commission report with a clean bill of health,” says Chris Blundell, corporate affairs director of Morrison’s.This is partly because the supermarket has been dealing direct with farmers for more than 30 years. Recently it celebrated the 25th anniversary of a deal struck with the Melton family, strawberry growers in Norfolk who sell their entire output to the Bradford-based supermarket chain. In that time Melton’s acreage has risen from 100 to 1,000, and its strawberry-producing season from three weeks to 13.
