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Look through the present bout of jitters in capital markets and the longer-term outlook is still extraordinarily benign

02 Sep Posted by admin in General | Comments

Look through the present bout of jitters in capital markets, and the longer-term outlook is still extraordinarily benign. One of them is Peter Oppenheimer, head of European portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs. Don’t let the title of his latest tome – the pretentiously named “Globology Revolution” – put you off.The point he makes is not exactly new, but it is a reassuringly positive one none the less for those who had started to believe the doom-laden talk of financial and economic Armageddon. Do we want totally to price ourselves out of the market?World economy: an optimistic viewAmid the gloom of recent days, it’s refreshing to see there are at least still a few lone voices out there taking a relatively optimistic view of the long-term future. Taking into account existing payments of VAT, this would raise the tax on hotel accommodation to 23.375 per cent, a rate beaten within the EU only by Denmark.Research by Nottingham University demonstrates that any 1 per cent increase in prices relative to competitors reduces international tourism by an equal and opposite amount, so though the measure might raise money for local authorities, it would be entirely self defeating as far as the economy as a whole was concerned.Britain’s balance of payments deficit in tourism is already £18bn a year and rising We’ve got the Olympics coming up in six years too British hotel prices are already iniquitous enough. So Mr Cosslett is right to attempt to pre-empt this madness at an early stage.What the local authorities want is the right to impose a 5 per cent tax on use of all hotel beds. Yet when it comes to local government finance, anything is possible, and we know that ministers want business to pay more towards it somehow or other.

As far as we know, the idea has not yet been accepted by Sir Michael Lyons, who is reviewing local government funding on the Government’s behalf. This extraordinary invention seems to come straight out of the same mindset that brought the hated “window tax” of the 18th and 19th centuries, the vestiges of which can still be seen today in the bricked up windows of various London buildings.Andrew Cosslett, chief executive of InterContinental Hotels Group, worked himself up into a right old lather about it yesterday when announcing first-quarter results. Even the Sage of Omaha would struggle to show such sureness of foot.Taxing beds: another mad and bad ideaNo tax is a good tax, extreme libertarians are prone to argue, yet few would seem as counterproductive as the “bed tax” being proposed by the Local Government Association. Yet on this front too, Mr Buffett would no doubt approve the strategy. Tesco has spent years investigating and planning its assault on the US, and now that it is finally taking the plunge, it is doing so in a manner which has very limited downside and stands every chance of success.Sir Terry Leahy, the chief executive, is not about to risk his legacy with some madcap roll of the dice. It is hard to think of a company that ticks so many of Mr Buffett’s boxes.
One irony of the £200m investment is that just as Mr Buffett is starting to run scared of investing in the US economy, Tesco is wading in, with a proposed chain of convenience stores in California.

Indeed, it is a wonder it has taken him so long to spot the opportunity. Tesco fits virtually all his criteria like hand in glove – a powerful, well managed brand with commanding market position which puts the customer first and invests strongly in its long-term future. Mr Buffett has long been saying he’s about to turn his attention to Europe in his never-ending hunt for decent long-term investments. By choosing Tesco, albeit for an initially quite small investment by his standards, he only confirms his oft-stated investment principles. For any company, there could scarcely be a greater accolade or vote of confidence in the management than to have Warren Buffett, the legendary investment guru, join the share register. A spokesman said he did not know if the issue could eventually involve the police.The shares were halted at 84.5p, at which price Alpha is worth £147m It made profit last year of £18.4m on sales of £550m..

Mr Redburn has been appointed on a three-month contract initially.A special committee has been set-up to investigate the dubious contract. This committee is in “constructive discussions” with PwC, according to Alpha.A law firm has also been appointed to “investigate the matter fully”. According to a release to the stock exchange, Alpha “consciously assisted … (a) customer to put itself in a position in which it might have been able to manipulate its own financial statements”.PricewaterhouseCoopers said it had “valid concerns” over the accounts, and pulled its approval at the last minute, a highly embarrassing decision for Alpha.Yesterday Kevin Abbott, the chief executive, and Heather McRae, the finance director, resigned with immediate effect.They have been replaced by Peter Williams, formerly chief executive of Selfridges, and Tim Redburn, who has held senior positions at Simon Group and Henlys. Shares in the business – which supplies food and retail services to 100 airlines and 70 airports – have been suspended since April, when the auditors suddenly withdrew their approval of the accounts.
At the centre of the scandal is a curious contract signed in October 2005.

The crisis at Alpha Airports deepened yesterday when the chief executive and finance director quit amid an investigation into the company accounts. In any case, a quarter of the chain’s seats are on pavements where people can smoke.The company is confident it can meet analyst forecasts of £45.5m in turnover and £4.1m in pre-tax profits for the year.. Turnover climbed 21 per cent to £21.6m.
The group said trading was unaffected by a smoking ban imposed in April after a trial at five restaurants after consultation with customers. The new stores are getting profitable very quickly, almost immediately.” Carluccio’s is opening five restaurants a year and intends to have 50 to 60 in five years. Pre-tax profits rose to £2m in the six months to 27 March excluding float costs of £900,000, from £1.6m a year ago. Carluccio’s managing director, Simon Kossoff, said the chain was doing well because it stays open longer than other restaurant chains – from 8am to 11pm – and gets half its turnover from serving coffee in the mornings and selling pasta and other Italian food across its 26 outlets He said: “It’s a growth story. The Italian restaurant and delicatessen chain Carluccio’s served up a 21 per cent rise in underlying first-half profits yesterday after listing on the stock market in December.

 


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