Policies to curb the spread of foot-and-mouth disease are “beginning to bite”, according to a computer analysis released yesterday by Professor David King, the Government’s chief scientist.Culling infected animals within 24 hours of a positive diagnosis on a farm and killing all animals on neighbouring farms within 48 hours could result in the epidemic peaking within the next seven days, Professor King said.A team of epidemiologists drawn from Imperial College, London, and Cambridge University has drawn up independent computer forecasts of the future course of the epidemic and have come to “remarkable agreement”, Professor King said.The 24/48-hour policy introduced on 22 March appears to have stopped the exponential increase in the epidemic, with new cases following a diminishing curve that is set almost to peter out by the time of an expected June election.Professor King said: “Nobody is saying that this epidemic can just be switched off. My own view is that the policy is beginning to bite.”Both the Cambridge and the Imperial College team predicted that if the time between diagnosis and slaughter continued to be longer than 24 hours the epidemic would have increased to a peak of between 400 and 450 new cases a day next month.However, the computer models showed that if a 24/48-hour regime was strictly followed, the peak should be reached at about 40 to 45 new cases by about now, in the case of the Imperial model, and the middle of this month in the case of the Cambridge model.Professor King said that it looked as if the epidemic was following the more optimistic assessment with about 40 or 45 new cases a day rather than the 65 or 70 expected if the 24/48 regime was not enforced.”If given another seven days of figures, we’ll be very clear about which set of projectories we’re beginning to follow. I stress the need for the 24-hour culls and the need to take out neighbouring farms. What is absolutely vital is keeping the farmers on course with this policy,” Professor King said.Asked whether the Government had ruled out emergency vaccination ­ a policy bitterly opposed by many farmers ­ Professor King reiterated that the present culling policy was beginning to take effect. “But that does not rule out vaccination,” he said.By culling animals in farms neighbouring an outbreak within 48 hours of a positive diagnosis, the spread of the virus has been substantially hampered, he said. “This was the most effective policy when we went through the models.”If the two models, which were prepared independently of one another, were accurate, the number of new cases would tail off over the summer The weather could make a big difference “Weather is crucial. If the weather is cold and wet, it’ll take longer to deal with the outbreak.

Let’s hope for a long, hot spell,” Professor King said.The scientists were concerned that the cases of foot-and-mouth disease in Cumbria may spread south to the Lake District, a concern that made the 48-hour culling policy of neighbouring farms even more important in creating a firebreak. Professor King said that the models were consistent with the outbreak beginning about 10 days before 20 February, when it was first detected at an abattoir in Essex.Professor King has led the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Advisory Group, a team of scientists drawn from the Office of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, the Ministry of Defence and five British universities It reports to ministers twice a day.. Eight years after defrauding Olympique Marseille football club of £10m, and four years after ending a jail sentence for bribing an opposing team, Bernard Tapie has a new job. Eight years after defrauding Olympique Marseille football club of £10m, and four years after ending a jail sentence for bribing an opposing team, Bernard Tapie has a new job.
He is to be the sporting director and a minority shareholder of the football club that he shamed and almost ruined. Even by French standards ­ where proven or alleged corruption seems increasingly to be regarded as a passing misfortune or even a badge of honour ­ the resurrection of Bernard Tapie is an extraordinary event.Mr Tapie, 58, a wheeler- dealer, turned football boss, turned Socialist politician, epitomised the arrogance, easy money and corruption of the early 1990s in France. He was disgraced and bankrupted and jailed for six months after being convicted of bribing an opposing team to throw a French first division game.Because of his skulduggery, Olympique Marseille (OM), for whom the former England star Chris Waddle once played, were stripped of their French and European titles and demoted, bankrupt, to the second division.And yet “Saint Bernard’s” return was greeted ecstatically yesterday by OM’s fans. “Believe me, the welcome for him [at his first game] will be exceptional,” said Lionel Tonini, president of the “Yankees”, the biggest club of OM supporters.

“You know, here, Tapie is an idol.”It is true that Mr Tapie gave OM seven years of success from 1986-93 and that the club has mostly struggled since he fell from grace. It is also true that the city of Marseilles, and the wider diaspora of OM fans, have convinced themselves that Mr Tapie was the innocent “victim” of a conspiracy by the Marseilles- hating Parisian establishment.But his rehabilitation is part of a new and disturbing phenomenon of public indifference to political and business corruption in France. Last weekend, the former French finance minister, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was elected as a Socialist MP in a by-election in the Paris suburbs, despite facing two unresolved accusations of illegal activities inside and outside public office. In the municipal elections last month, Patrick Balkany, once of the Gaullist RPR party, was re-elected mayor of Levallois in the western suburbs of Paris, six years after being forced to resign in the face of accusations ­ later proved ­ that he raised campaign funds through kick-backs on public contracts.Jean Tiberi, the outgoing mayor of Paris, dumped by the Gaullists, was overwhelmingly re-elected in his own fiefdom, the fifth arrondissement, despite accusations of corruption.Philippe Seguin, the defeated candidate of the centre-right in Paris, described this phenomenon as “une prime ?a casserole” ­ an electoral bonus from corruption.The return of Tapie is bad news for the Socialist Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, who has presented himself as an honest antidote to the corruption of the 1990s. The Socialists also hope the allegations of corruption swirling around President Jacques Chirac might help Mr Jospin to win the presidential election next May.Mr Tapie was convicted of bribing players on the Valenciennes team to throw a French league game just before OM were to play AC Milan in the European Cup final of May 1993 He was also convicted of embezzling £10m from the club. OM were stripped of their French and European titles that year.The club has since struggled, despite buying expensive French and foreign players.

Having narrowly avoided relegation last year, OM are 14th in the first division, six points clear of the relegation zone with five matches remaining.The president of the club, Robert Louis-Dreyfus, who made his money by buying up the Adidas sportswear company after Tapie lost control in 1992, has been under constant fire from OM’s passionate and often intolerant fans. Inviting Tapie to return ­ initially in an unpaid role ­ is seen as a last, desperate kick upfield by Mr Dreyfus to placate the fans and rescue the £80m he has invested in the club.Tapie intends to buy back OM and relaunch his career in politics if he wins an outstanding £600m lawsuit against the bank Cr?t Lyonnais.. Robin Cook gently twisted the thumbscrews on the Serbs to hand over Slobodan Milosevic for trial on war crimes charges yesterday – while insisting that his message was, above all, one of friendship. Robin Cook gently twisted the thumbscrews on the Serbs to hand over Slobodan Milosevic for trial on war crimes charges yesterday – while insisting that his message was, above all, one of friendship.Offering a mixture of carrot and stick, the Foreign Secretary, on his first visit to the Serb capital since 1999, talked of the need for “parallel tracks”, saying that the partnership between Belgrade and the international community “must be a two-way process”.The UN war crimes tribunal in The Hague hardened its pressure significantly on the Serb authorities yesterday to hand over the ousted dictator.