The incentive structure is not enough to correct these imbalances. There are too many and their academic skills are out of line with what is required. Regular reports that the retirement age will need to be raised are unlikely to lift sagging spirits.The frustration of GPs at their inability to provide the standard of service they would like and many of us would expect, plus a growing unease about needing the National Health Service in old age can trigger savings plans, but is more likely to foster resentment and concern.The salary premium payable to graduates is reducing. The impact this has on the wealth and spending patterns of those affected could be considerable.The failure of endowment policies to cover mortgage repayments necessitates higher levels of (net) savings and adds to a growing mistrust over long-term savings products. The higher environmental risk, not least in highly populated areas now prone to flooding, is a factor whose relevance has been raised by the reduction in insurance cover.

It stems from developments that affect attitudes to risk-taking. expect war this winter.The writer is a BBC special correspondent. It’s hard to believe there will be any meaningful dialogue, and the best Bush can expect is a lowering of anti-war rhetoric from Arab leaders Also expect Saddam to give a little but not enough and… So expect to see a big public relations campaign to shock the American people into supporting war, with or without wide international support, and expect a sudden increase in the tempo of American efforts to try and win Arab support by pressing Ariel Sharon to talk to the Palestinians. Mr Bush needs to say whether he plans to turn Iraq into an international protectorate with thousands of Allied troops patrolling the area for years into the future.But most of all Mr Bush needs to make a compelling case to his own people, and the rest of the world, for going to war in the first place. How will the US respond if Saddam deploys chemical and biological weapons against Allied forces and against the Israelis? And what does he plan to do for Iraq after Saddam is ousted? Iraq is a country of different nations – Sunni, Shia and Kurd – and could easily slide into Yugoslavia-style anarchy.

Thus when he arrives in Camp David today he will surely be asking how Mr Bush proposes to deal with the prospect of large-scale casualties if Saddam’s ?te forces make a stand in the cities. Mr Blair senses this more acutely than his American counterpart, if only because he is more inclined to hear the advice of his own diplomats and intelligence people. But it is at this point that American public opinion could swing in behind the President and the countdown to war will have begun.The list of what-ifs that attend any war scenario is scary. If Saddam is convinced that the rest of the world is opposed to war and that the US and Britain are isolated, he will play tough and hope to humiliate Bush before a shot is fired. This does not seem to be based on job prospects alone, otherwise the housing market would already have come off the boil. To shore our defences, we need a new and positive domestic shock.This may prove even more important, given less than encouraging signs from the UK consumer sectors Consumers are becoming more wary.